How to Identify Someone Worth Investing in at 20

“This essay was originally published in China, where it became one of the most widely read long-form pieces on young entrepreneurship. A single link reached over 400,000 readers, with total distribution across the internet exceeding one million.”

How do we recognize young people who haven’t started yet, but may one day change the world?

I want to talk about a kind of talent that’s often overlooked. It’s not as easy to measure as intelligence or credentials, but it frequently determines whether someone can step off the default track and carve out a path of their own. I call it Structural Divergence Capacity.

This isn’t simple discipline or motivation. It’s the ability to set goals, make progress, and grow independently in the absence of tasks, supervision, or external pressure. When no one is asking anything of you, can you still move forward?

The "Off-Pattern" Talent

Over the past few years, I’ve met tens of thousands of founders. The ones that fascinate me most aren’t those with polished resumes or perfect narratives, but younger people who feel slightly off-pattern. They think in jumps. They operate on intuition. They often struggle to explain themselves. But you can sense something burning underneath—a fire that hasn’t fully caught yet.

People often ask me whether you should wait until someone has already built something before investing in them. My answer is no—not always. Those who haven’t yet drawn their sword can be the most interesting. As The Art of War puts it, “The greatest victories leave no trace.” Momentum forms before action becomes visible, and striking too early can injure both the blade and the wielder.

For young people, the most valuable stage is often just before they commit fully. They have motivation and early judgment, but they’re not yet fixed. Precisely because of that, the marginal value of support is enormous. Some have tried and failed already; if they can absorb the lessons quickly and reflect with clarity, that too is a signal of maturity.

Breaking the Three Invisible Forces

Most young people aren’t short on potential. They’re constrained by three invisible forces: limited cognition, lack of courage, and loss of direction. They’re not unintelligent—they’re simply still trapped inside mainstream paths, afraid of failure, or slowly worn down by the tension between ideals and reality.

Those with structural divergence capacity are already breaking through these constraints. They may not see themselves as “students” even while still in school. Their information sources are decentralized, unstable, and global. They use VPNs to learn frontier ideas, reach out to strangers, download obscure apps, test prototypes, and recruit friends as early users. They know how to appear inexperienced when it helps them learn faster. Their learning rarely shows up on transcripts, but it exists. They may skip events, but they’re always in motion.

They don’t feel cultivated. They feel self-grown.

The Common Traits of Young People Worth Betting On

1. An unusually sharp perception of the world

The world today is heavily fragmented. Different generations, classes, and industries barely communicate. Many adults have lost any real intuition for how young people think. We often assume young ideas are naïve; in reality, they’re often closest to emerging demand. Their sensitivity to social behavior, AI, culture, and lifestyle shifts can be far more forward-looking than those already embedded in existing structures.

• The Test: Can they see something others don’t—and act on that perception?

2. Problem-driven learning and execution

Everyone says they’re “learning AI” right now, but most are just following the trend. The young people worth investing in reverse the sequence. They encounter a problem first—often a problem that matters personally—and only then learn the skills required to solve it. Their learning path runs backward:

Problem → Solution path → Skills to acquire

Once learning is goal-driven, focus and absorption increase dramatically. They aren’t constrained by jobs or obligations yet; they have time, energy, and curiosity. Learning isn’t for exams or resumes—it’s for building.

3. Dense curiosity with real execution

Curiosity isn’t unique to the young, but its density and executability are. They’ll chase a question through articles, videos, code experiments, and small side projects. More importantly, they’re not yet structurally constrained. Most adults develop "professional curiosity" in service of existing goals, but young people can still wander. This wandering has no immediate payoff, but it’s where real creativity forms.

4. Compounding self-iteration

They may not talk about compounding, but they live it. They document mistakes, refine processes, and adjust how they interact with the world. This is long-termism in practice—not just saying the words, but asking after every failure: What did I learn? Can I reuse this? How do I do it better next time? Failure doesn’t reset them. It stacks.

5. The ability to endure failure and misunderstanding

These people aren’t fearless; they move forward while still preparing. They understand that fear is not a stop sign—it’s part of the path. Often, they’re walking alone with no applause or reinforcement. Some go too far down the wrong path, and that’s when honest guidance matters—helping them protect the small fire they still carry. Even a weak flame deserves protection.

6. Intelligent—and a little foolish

These people can look foolish, stubborn, or uninterested in shortcuts. The very smart can do many things, but the “foolish” often do one thing deeply enough to break through. Their paths don’t show up on resumes. They might be awkward, unconventional, or out of sync. Their weirdness isn’t rebellion—it’s instinctive noncompliance.

Real-World Trajectories

Because these traits escape traditional evaluation, I began developing a new framework to understand them. That’s where the concept of structural divergence capacity came from.

• The Independent Researcher: I once met an undergraduate at Zhejiang University who rarely participated in campus life. Instead, he worked at the lowest level of a company for a year and a half to understand an industry from the ground up. He chose to start a company first to train himself and accumulate capital for his long-term goal of embodied intelligence. He didn’t waste attention on small talk; he only engaged once he sensed genuine utility.

• The Observant Doer: Another student showed up when I asked for a chat on social media, and again when I needed a badminton partner. He wasn't pitching; he was instinctively sensing that these interactions mattered. He dropped out of Tsinghua at 19, and by 23, he had raised a nine-figure round from top global funds.

• The Overlooked Intern: I’ve also missed people. A young woman once worked as an intern at a tiny startup, behaving like a cofounder. Years later, she founded her own company and raised millions. I overlooked her because she lacked an elite school or technical background. That failure forced reflection.

Meaningful investing isn’t about backing those already destined to succeed. It’s about identifying overlooked trajectories. History offers many examples: the founders of Pop Mart, DJI, and Heytea didn’t all come from elite pedigrees. Their success was driven by growth intensity and structural divergence.

Final Thoughts

Investing in people isn’t formulaic; it’s trust under uncertainty. Heroes have always emerged young. The question is whether you’re willing to believe in someone who hasn’t graduated yet.

Have You Met Someone Like This? Look around. Maybe they’re near you. Or maybe it’s you—working quietly in the corner. If so, reach out. Some of the most consequential stories begin with a coffee.

Investing in people is both scientific and romantic. Scientific in judgment; romantic in believing that an unfinished young person might redefine an industry in ten years. My role is simple: to say, at the right moment, “I see you.”

And perhaps, you can become someone who sees them too.